As the Global Order Unravels: Europe Struggles for Security Autonomy from the U.S.
Since Trump’s first term, Europe has worked toward strategic autonomy, recognizing the need to reduce its dependence on the U.S. in an increasingly unstable world. Beyond Trump’s policies, China’s growing assertiveness and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine have underscored the urgency of this shift. However, with Trump’s second term now in full swing, his administration has made it clear that American support for Europe will not last much longer. Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth recently stated, “You can’t make an assumption that America’s presence will last forever.”Meanwhile, Stephen Walt argued in Foreign Affairs that the U.S. has effectively become Europe’s enemy.
The reality is that Europe remains heavily reliant on the U.S. for its defense. Roughly 100,000 U.S. troops are stationed across the continent, and if they were withdrawn, Europe would struggle to protect itself. NATO’s $4.8 billion budget is minuscule compared to the U.S. defense budget of nearly $900 billion. While individual NATO members contribute to collective defense, many fail to meet even the 2% GDP spending target—with one-quarter of member states missing the mark last year. Trump’s push for a 5% defense spending goal is unlikely to materialize anytime soon.
Despite the EU outspending the U.S. on Ukraine aid ($138 billion vs. $120 billion), Kyiv still relies on American long-range weapons systems like HIMARS and ATACMS. With an estimated 700,000 Russian troops occupying Ukrainian territory and Moscow ramping up production of tanks, armored vehicles, and long-range munitions, Ukraine’s ability to resist hinges on sustained Western support.
At the same time, the global order is shifting. The international system is coming apart at the seams, and military power is becoming the primary determinant of influence. In an era where territorial aggression is more frequent and states seek control over resources and strategic geography, raw power matters more than ever. The United States’ War on Terror, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea have all contributed to the erosion of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which prohibits the use of force in international relations. In the Middle East, international legal constraints on war are also loosening.
As illiberalism thrives, nations are prioritizing ad hoc alliances based on strategic interests rather than committing to higher-order values like democracy or self-determination. The post-WWII international system, built on territorial sovereignty, legal equality, and the right of self-determination, is under increasing strain. The Trump administration understands this shift and is embracing a world where hard power—military and economic force—matters more than soft power and diplomatic influence. Instead of reinforcing alliances built on democratic principles, Trump is redirecting his focus from Europe toward Latin America, seeking influence through transactional relationships rather than long-term security commitments.
For Europe, this means time is running out. A credible European defense would require training hundreds of thousands of additional troops under a unified command - currently, Europe has nearly 1.5 million active duty military personnel across 29 national armies, meaning that they lack unified command. Furthermore, to deter Russian aggression, Europe would have to produce roughly 1,500 tanks, 2,000 armored vehicles, and 700 artillery pieces—a force greater than that of its strongest military powers combined. The EU must prepare for a world where U.S. security guarantees are no longer a given. Europe’s ability to deter an aggressive Russia—one that sees imperial expansion from Dublin to Vladivostok as a legitimate goal—depends on rapidly building its own military capacity.
Strategic autonomy is not just an ideal but a necessity. Europe must commit close to 4% of its GDP (a 250 billion Euro increase) to defense spending if it wants a fighting chance against an aggressive Russia. However, it remains a decade-long project, and in the meantime, European security will have to rely on U.S. assistance, even as the international order drifts back to an era where might makes right.
