This piece, published in El Espectador, examines the profound domestic and international challenges posed by Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, from threats to U.S. constitutional norms to shifts in global stability.

Key points that I make include:

• The erosion of democratic norms through expanded executive powers and politicization of institutions.

• The humanitarian and economic impacts of sweeping immigration reforms.

• The risks of isolationist and confrontational foreign policies, including potential repercussions for the U.S. role in the international liberal order.

Resumen en español:

El artículo publicado en El Especatdor examina los profundos desafíos nacionales e internacionales que plantea el regreso de Donald Trump a la presidencia, desde las amenazas a las normas constitucionales estadounidenses hasta los cambios en la estabilidad mundial.

Los puntos clave que planteo incluyen:

• La erosión de las normas democráticas a través de la ampliación de los poderes ejecutivos y la politización de las instituciones.

• El impacto humanitario y económico de las amplias reformas migratorias.

• Los riesgos de las políticas exteriores aislacionistas y de confrontación, incluidas las posibles repercusiones para el papel de Estados Unidos en el orden liberal internacional.

You can read the article in Spanish here.

El Espectador

12/29/2024

In this article published in Revista Credencial, I examine the potential implications of a second Trump presidency, highlighting the damage caused during his first term, including undermining international agreements, weakening U.S. alliances, and eroding trust in democratic institutions. I argue that Trump is likely to pressure Ukraine into making territorial concessions, which would set a dangerous precedent in international law and further embolden authoritarian regimes. I also discuss Europe’s limited capacity to sustain Ukraine without U.S. support and raise concerns about unchecked Israeli actions in Gaza under Trump’s encouragement. Domestically, I highlight how Republican control of Congress and the Supreme Court removes critical checks on presidential power, allowing Trump to consolidate authority and further entrench conservative dominance, potentially reshaping U.S. law and governance for generations.

Resumen en español: 

En este artículo publicado en la Revista Credencial, examino las posibles implicaciones de una segunda presidencia de Trump, destacando los daños causados durante su primer mandato, entre ellos el socavamiento de los acuerdos internacionales, el debilitamiento de las alianzas de Estados Unidos y la erosión de la confianza en las instituciones democráticas. Argumento que es probable que Trump presione a Ucrania para que haga concesiones territoriales, lo que sentaría un peligroso precedente en el derecho internacional y envalentonaría aún más a los regímenes autoritarios. También discuto la limitada capacidad de Europa para sostener a Ucrania sin el apoyo de Estados Unidos y planteo preocupaciones sobre las acciones israelíes sin control en Gaza bajo el aliento de Trump. A nivel nacional, destaco cómo el control republicano del Congreso y del Tribunal Supremo elimina controles críticos sobre el poder presidencial, permitiendo a Trump consolidar la autoridad y afianzar aún más el dominio conservador, lo que podría remodelar la legislación y la gobernanza de Estados Unidos durante generaciones.

You can read the article in Spanish on the website of Revista Credencial.

Revista Credencial (Noviembre 2024, Edición 456)

Abstract in English:

This chapter critically examines the Biden administration's policy towards Latin America, revealing a significant gap between its initial promises and actual outcomes. The findings indicate that despite Biden's commitments to restoring democracy, improving economic ties, and addressing security concerns in the region, the administration has struggled to depart from traditional U.S. approaches. The analysis shows that structural challenges, entrenched interests, and the legacy of previous administrations have limited the effectiveness of Biden's policies. As a result, the anticipated shift towards a more cooperative and respectful relationship with Latin American countries has been only partially realized, with significant issues still unresolved.

Resumen en español:

Este capítulo examina críticamente la política de la administración Biden hacia América Latina, revelando una brecha significativa entre sus promesas iniciales y los resultados reales. Los hallazgos indican que, a pesar de los compromisos de Biden de restaurar la democracia, mejorar los lazos económicos y abordar las preocupaciones de seguridad en la región, la administración ha luchado por alejarse de los enfoques tradicionales de Estados Unidos. El análisis muestra que los desafíos estructurales, los intereses arraigados y el legado de administraciones anteriores han limitado la efectividad de las políticas de Biden. Como resultado, el cambio anticipado hacia una relación más cooperativa y respetuosa con los países latinoamericanos solo se ha logrado parcialmente, quedando aún sin resolver problemas significativos.

Book chapter in Reconfiguración del orden mundial: incertidumbres regionales y locales. Edited by Andrés Serbín, Eduardo Pastrana Buelvas, Stefan Reith, 111-116. Bogotá: Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, 2024. ISBN: 978-628-7708-08-2

Description goeWhile democracy once flourished, recent trends indicate a troubling decline, exemplified by the erosion of democratic norms and practices globally. This article scrutinizes the impact of Donald Trump's presidency on American democracy, revealing a landscape fraught with polarization, institutional dysfunction, and societal divisions. With looming threats of authoritarian resurgence and geopolitical tensions, the article underscores the pivotal role of the United States in upholding the liberal world order. As the world watches the upcoming elections with bated breath, the fate of American democracy hangs in the balance, with profound implications for global stability and the future of governance.

Pax Lumina: A Quest for Peace and Reconciliation

p. 20 | Vol. 05 | No. 02 March 2024s here

Democrats defied the tides of history and bucked the conventional wisdom which tells us that the incumbent president’s party suffers heavy losses in Congress in midterm elections. Despite the dire forecasts, the Democrats expanded their Senate majority (for the first time in a midterm since 1962) and far outperformed expectations in the House by ceding only 9 seats to Republicans. The pre-election “shellacking” narrative was driven by numerous factors such as the president’s low approval rating, economic concerns, and an increasingly out-of-control crisis at the southern border. A combination of confounding variables including the Dobbs effect, concerns about democratic backsliding, and the foreign and domestic policy accomplishments of Biden’s unified government energized the Democratic base as well as independent voters to turn out for the president’s party and softened the widely predicted midterm blow.

Friedrich Ebert Stiftung - Analysis 
ISBN 978-3-98628-223-2
January 2023

Thirty years after the end of the Cold War with Soviet Russia, the Biden administration finds itself in a similar competition with China. What are the contours of the “New Cold War” as the two superpowers vie for influence in Latin America.

Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Washington, DC

12/16/2021

Despite Biden’s decision to end America’s longest war, we should not expect the 46th president to willingly relinquish the extraordinary national security powers that have accrued to his office since the terrorist attacks on September 11th, 2001.

Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Washington, DC

12/10/2021

The United States has much to gain from acting promptly and aggressively against the pandemic in other countries of the Western Hemisphere. Aside from the political and security benefits, bold and decisive action serves the United States’ self-interest in other ways as well. The pandemic is a momentous opportunity for Biden to show that “America is back,” and that open and democratic societies can deliver solutions to the pandemic.

Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Washington, DC

11/15/2021

President Biden faces daunting challenges as he develops a new set of immigration policies - but are these policies really “Trump light” or “Trump 2.0”? I examine President Biden’s immigration-related executive orders and their implementation to date to evaluate if those labels accurately characterize the new administration’s track record.

Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Washington, DC

10/27/2021

If the US cannot find a way to move past Trumpism, the next populist will take over more than just the Republican party

International Politics and Society Journal
English
German
Russian

12/03/2020

Should we expect a repeat of 2016? What would a Biden win or a Trump win mean for governability over the next four years?

Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Washington, DC

11/01/2020

On Republican support for Joe Biden to save the GOP.

International Politics and Society Journal
English
German

07/22/2020

Part one of a round of critical analyses of President Trump’s controversial immigration ban: the unfolding legal battle.

Spotlight Magazine

02/15/2017

The ‘FES Spotlight Elections’ is a series that presents short opinion pieces on social and economic policy topics that are playing a role in the debates and campaigns leading up to the U.S. Presidential elections of 2016.

Spotlight Magazine

11/03/2016